World military expenditure reached $2,887 billion in 2025, yet the decisive change lies elsewhere: in factories, supply chains and multi-year order backlogs. This analysis separates rearmament from a war economy, examining Europe’s shift from funding armies to funding production, Türkiye’s simultaneous expansion of industrial capacity and civil resilience, Russia as the single genuine war economy in the system, America’s mature cycle blocked by shipyards rather than budgets, and China’s construction of strategic endurance. With the Middle East at war, the Houthis threatening Bab al-Mandeb and New START expired, the international system is rebuilding, methodically and unevenly, the economic capacity to sustain a long conflict if deterrence fails.