An analysis of Marco Rubio’s strategy at the ASEAN Regional Forum in Manila, where the US Secretary of State seeks to convert Iranian pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthi threat to Bab el-Mandeb into a diplomatic trap capable of isolating Tehran by aligning the states affected economically. The piece traces the concentric-circle architecture of the coalition — ASEAN, Quad, Arab states, Pakistan — and the limits of the front being built in Manila.