The 2026 Refill Season, Undermined by the Hormuz Crisis: Europe Is Heading Into Winter Without an Energy Buffer

Europe’s natural gas refill season opens in 2026 under the worst conditions in four years. With storage levels at between 22 and 27 percent of capacity, QatarEnergy in force majeure, and TTF benchmark prices up approximately 70 percent, the continent risks entering the winter of 2026–2027 without adequate reserves. Atlas News examines the mechanics of the crisis, the institutional response from Brussels, and the three scenarios shaping the winter ahead.